Maby

More accurate than disease experts

Researchers from UMass have been collecting COVID forecasts from over 30 disease experts from insitutions like Harvard and Johns Hopkins. We've been forecasting along side and keeping score. Our scoreboard below shows all the questions, forecasts, and accuracy scores.

So far, we have been more accurate than the experts!

Scoreboard explainer: The questions have a few different formats, including 10/90 confidence intervals and multi-bin questions. In order to keep score, we have converted the format to a form that allows us to keep score. When a question asks for 10/50/90 percentiles, we have used the percentile forecasts provided by the experts as cut points for a multi-bin question. By definition the experts' forecasts to that multi-bin question are 10% / 40% / 40% / 10%. We have assigned probabilities to those bins consistent with Tom's 10/50/90. This is done as close to real time as possible and posted on twitter. In cases where the question is originally a multi-bin question, we have approximated what the forecaster's 10/50/90 with simple interpolation and presented the results in the table above.

Online Forecasting Facilitation

Goal: Have your group make measurably better forecasts on the issues that matter most to you during a 90 minute online meeting.

Key highlights:

• Before the meeting we convert your key issues into 3-4 forecasting questions and load them onto our app.
• During the meeting with your team, we guide your team through the Delphi method in which everyone first forecasts anonymously, then sees what everyone else thinks, votes for the best comments, and updates their forecasts.
• We expect the Delphi method to lead to measurably better forecasts (as measured by Brier score) in as little as 15 minutes per question.
• After the meeting you receive the forecast data, feedback, and calibration information for everyone who participates.
• We view ourselves as coaches to get the most out of your team. Like personal trainers, we aim to teach you how to forecast effectively yourself, but we can train your team as frequently as you like.

Whether you need help improving your forecast accuracy or want to outsource your foresight entirely to us, Maby can help!