Maby

Forecasting Expert vs. Disease Experts

We believe that keeping score of forecasts is the key to assessing and improving your forecast accuracy.

As the covid-19 pandemic hit the United States, we were invited to submit forecast estimates alongside a CDC-funded panel of experts in public health. Our forecasts have been more accurate than virus experts despite having no training in public health, virology, or epidemiology. We simply follow the same sound forecasting techniques that we teach to our clients.

Below you can see a complete record of our coronavirus forecasts.

Click here to see how the Brier scores were calculated.

Build your team's forecasting capabilities

Maby helps your team produce accurate forecasts using our custom software, expertise in forecasting best practices, and experience making forecasting practical for busy organizations. Gain the confidence that you know the what top organizations are already doing.

Goals: We’ll work with you to identify the most important estimates for your organisation. From project completion dates, key risks, quarterly outlook projections, we compile a register of required estimates.

Training: We can offer as much or as little training as you require. For some clients, building up their in-house forecasting capacity is the most important goal. Other clients prefer monthly sessions.. Either way, we have feedback and training tools to improve your team’s forecasts, and avoid the risk of common cognitive biases which can throw off estimates.

Facilitation: We’ll gather your team and walk them through the estimates they need to make- harnessing the wisdom of your crowd. Our process and software to rapidly record, anonymise, share and aggregate information. We find that 15 minutes per topic is enough to see measurable improvement in accuracy. Want an outside view into your future timelines? We can supply expert forecasters to join your team and add their insights.

Reporting: At the end of the process, you will receive a full report of every estimate, aggregated for accuracy, with qualitative commentary drawn from your team’s comments. Each participant will receive a report of their own estimates for future review, and we can check back in and update the forecasts as new information comes to light.

Feedback and improvement: For longer run projects, we can gather multiple forecasts from your team and offer detailed feedback as forecasts resolve - from calibration to resolution to noise and bias reduction, we can help your team improve their predictive accuracy over time, creating a valuable in-house resource for you to call on any time you’re facing uncertainty.

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