Our client, a government department with an existing futures team, wanted to improve their forward range and predictive accuracy with a custom training from Maby. Our plan had the following steps:
- A detailed consultation with the client lead to identify key risks requiring accurate forecasts.
- Pre-training assessment of each team member’s scope sensitivity and calibration, key attributes for accurate forecasting.
- A training workshop focused on forecasting the key risk topics, using each risk area as the jumping off point to explore more advanced forecasting techniques - beginning with assigning probabilities to binary yes/no event questions, then multiple outcomes, and finally exploring the construction of probability ranges and conditional forecasts. Each technique is explored using techniques to aggregate and share information among the team.
- At each stage of the workshop, forecasts and written comments are recorded from all team members.
- We provide use of our forecast aggregation software for one year following the workshop to use as an internal tool for the team.
- As the forecasts resolve over time, team members receive individual feedback on their forecast accuracy, allowing them to identify lessons learned and improve their next set of estimates.
Outcome
Team members:
- Have a better understanding of their strengths and areas to target for improvement.
- Are upskilled in generating probabilities for scenarios.
- Have learned techniques to maximise accuracy as a team, balancing individual and collective estimates.
- Can promptly and confidently deliver probability estimates for a range of policy choices by decision makers.
Decision makers:
- Have a better understanding of their futures team’s accuracy and calibration.
- Have a strong internal resource to draw on for fast and accurate estimates of risks and outcomes when facing decisions under uncertainty.